Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.007033 0.007914 0.008864 0.009968 0.011214 0.012577 0.014185
2026-02-08 0.005623 0.006834 0.008247 0.010021 0.012192 0.014766 0.018057
2026-02-15 0.004762 0.006101 0.007752 0.009939 0.012768 0.016317 0.021121
2026-02-22 0.004271 0.005714 0.007572 0.010147 0.013635 0.018216 0.024718
2026-03-01 0.003703 0.005140 0.007060 0.009824 0.013721 0.019044 0.026915
2026-03-08 0.003291 0.004720 0.006695 0.009637 0.013933 0.020014 0.029344
2026-03-15 0.002930 0.004329 0.006322 0.009384 0.014001 0.020752 0.031463
2026-03-22 0.002783 0.004228 0.006348 0.009701 0.014914 0.022775 0.035657
2026-03-29 0.002623 0.004091 0.006300 0.009894 0.015642 0.024564 0.039630
2026-04-05 0.002487 0.003975 0.006273 0.010107 0.016407 0.026458 0.043921
2026-04-12 0.002297 0.003755 0.006060 0.010000 0.016639 0.027505 0.046893
2026-04-19 0.002147 0.003587 0.005915 0.009987 0.017017 0.028805 0.050389
2026-04-26 0.001979 0.003379 0.005692 0.009831 0.017148 0.029721 0.053337
2026-05-03 0.001866 0.003253 0.005596 0.009884 0.017647 0.031310 0.057633
2026-05-10 0.001740 0.003096 0.005433 0.009803 0.017892 0.032462 0.061218
2026-05-17 0.001672 0.003035 0.005431 0.010008 0.018672 0.034635 0.066908
2026-05-24 0.001532 0.002831 0.005158 0.009690 0.018446 0.034920 0.068970
2026-05-31 0.001424 0.002678 0.004965 0.009506 0.018455 0.035640 0.071940
2026-06-07 0.001316 0.002518 0.004748 0.009256 0.018313 0.036052 0.074313
2026-06-14 0.001289 0.002509 0.004817 0.009568 0.019309 0.038782 0.081712
2026-06-21 0.001248 0.002471 0.004824 0.009759 0.020071 0.041098 0.088440
2026-06-28 0.001212 0.002440 0.004841 0.009968 0.020887 0.043587 0.095765
2026-07-05 0.001144 0.002338 0.004711 0.009863 0.021030 0.044671 0.100077